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Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Pay-Cut Cities

t's not the best time to make a new start of it in New York state. Although the state's unemployment rate is better than much of the country's, a recent study shows that average wages are falling more rapidly in New York cities than metropolitan areas elsewhere in the country.

Six of the 10 cities where wages have fallen the fastest this year are in New York, according to a study from the Brookings Institution, released last week. From the fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, average wages fell in Rochester, Syracuse, Albany, New York, Poughkeepsie and Buffalo--and the decline is wreaking havoc on the state's finances.

Everyone knows there are job losses in a recession, but curiously, it is unusual--even in the depths of recession--for wages to fall. Wages are considered "sticky": Employers generally prefer to cut jobs than to cut the salaries of their staffs. When employers ax more higher-paid jobs than lower-paid ones, average wages fall.

Wage changes vary widely from region to region, as highlighted by the Brookings Institution's MetroMonitor report, which parses economic data on the country's 100 largest metropolitan areas. The report compares the change in real average wages for the 100 regions from Q4 2008 to the Q1 2009.

Recessions always have different effects from one region to the next. The bursting of the housing bubble hit hardest in Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada, but left much of Texas unharmed. Unemployment has climbed in housing-bubble cities and manufacturing centers, but has remained relatively low in the agriculturally centered Midwest.

The data from Brookings shows wage declines in 2009 have been particularly severe in the state of New York, while wages are starting to rise in many of the cities that suffered the worst of the housing bust.

"Employers are generally reluctant to cut nominal wages," says Howard Wial, a fellow at Brookings' Metropolitan Policy Program, so regions seeing a fall in average wages are likely experiencing something other than across-the-board wage cuts. "Higher-wage people are likely being laid off to a greater degree than lower-wage people, or moderately high-wage workers are being replaced by temps or contractors who are paid less," says Wial.

That explains much of what's happening in New York and Chicago. Wages fell 1.5% in New York and 0.7% in Chicago in the first quarter of 2009 from the previous quarter. Many high-paid financial workers lost their jobs or suffered sharp drops in performance-based compensation. So even though New York's unemployment rate of 7.6% is significantly better than the national average of 9.4%, the loss of high-paid jobs means average wages fell sharply. Rather than everyone losing income, the economy's mix of workers is changing.

The picture is even worse in upstate New York, where average wages fell 2.3% in Rochester and 2.2% in Syracuse. Wial suspects that the plunge in New York City is big enough to skew wage data across an already weak state. Because of the way data are gathered for this indicator, "you're probably seeing the influence of the city throughout the state," says Wial. "I don't think there's any other state where one city would be quite as much of a factor statewide."

Falling wages have a devastating impact on the state's tax revenues, which draw heavily on high-earners. The New York State Comptroller's Office reported that, in May, personal income tax revenues plummeted 44% compared with a year earlier. In the Big Apple, the mayor's office estimates tax revenues for fiscal year 2010 will be 30% below those of 2008.

The New York governor's office did not return calls for comment, but it's clear the state is acutely aware of the problem. "The economy continues to be shaky, and state revenues continue to be below prior-year levels," said New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli, in a statement accompanying the release of the state's plunging tax revenues. "The Division of the Budget projected that the first quarter of the fiscal year would be tight, so this is not a surprise. The General Fund is at historically low levels."

Although falling wages are always a sign of economic sickness, rising wages are not a surefire indication of economic health. Phoenix, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., and Fresno, Calif., where home value declines have been among the sharpest in the country, have logged a rise in average wages. Fresno's average wages rose even as unemployment spiked to 15.5% in the first quarter.

"The indication is there's a slowdown in migration to those places," explains Wial. "Workers are not perfect substitutes for one another and it may be that there is a decline in demand for lower-paid kinds of workers."

When higher-paid workers lose their jobs, it lowers average salaries. When lower-wage workers lose their jobs but people like bankruptcy lawyers and doctors all keep working, it raises average salaries. And the bottom falling out of a city's economy is not a healthy development.

But in some cities, rising wages do indicate relatively healthy economies. Average wages in Tulsa, Okla., rose 2.6% while unemployment registered a fairly benign 6%.

Wial says the data help to sharpen the picture on regional economies. "We're learning there are two sun belts and two manufacturing belts. The Sun Belt that is dependent on retirement and tourism has really suffered a lot--Florida, Nevada, much of California. The energy Sun Belt and government-military Sun Belt--Texas, Oklahoma--[has] done quite well and [is] at or near the top of our rankings."

The same trends are emerging with manufacturing, he says. "You might generally think a lot of manufacturing makes a region more vulnerable to recession, but it differs quite a bit from the auto industry to something else. The auto industry and auto suppliers--places that depend heavily on those industries have been hit very hard. But other types of manufacturing have done fairly well and sometimes quite well."

Cities Where Wages Fell the Most

No. 1: Rochester, N.Y.

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© Shutterstock

Wage Decrease: -2.3%

In April, when the national unemployment rate was 8.9%, unemployment in Rochester was a relatively low 7.4%.

But the economy of the region has suffered heavily, contracting 4.4% since its peak. Many jobs have been spared; many wages have not.

No. 2: Syracuse, N.Y.

Wage Decrease: -2.2%

Syracuse, too, has a better unemployment rate than the national average--only 7.7%--but its GDP has contracted more than 5% from its peak. Those economic losses have to show up somewhere.

No. 3: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.

Wage Decrease: -2%

When wages fall across a state, tax revenues to the state capital plunge as well. The New York State Comptroller's Office reported that, in May, personal income tax revenues fell 44% compared with a year earlier.

No. 4: New York, N.Y. / Newark, N.J. / Edison, Pa.

Wage Decrease: -1.5%

Average wages can be disproportionately skewed by losses at the top. When a worker earning slightly above average loses his or her job, the overall average barely budges. but when financiers earning hundreds of thousands lose their jobs, it pulls down average wages quickly. Plunging salaries on Wall Street explain the fall in New York, and affect the rest of the metropolitan region as well.

No. 5: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, N.Y.

Wage Decrease: -1.5%

Up the Hudson River, the effects of Wall Street's troubles reverberate. Poughkeepsie has only 7.2% unemployment and its economy has shrunk only an estimated 2.8%, but wages are falling.

Cities Where Wages Rose the Most

No. 1: Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.

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© iStock

Wage Increase: 2.6%

After experiencing the worst of the housing bust--home prices have fallen more than 50% from their peak in Phoenix, according to the Case-Shiller home price index--at least wages are growing in the Phoenix area.

Is it a "green shoot" of economic growth, or just evidence that people are no longer moving to Phoenix, causing a tight labor market for high-end jobs?

No. 2: Tulsa, Okla.

Wage Increase: 2.6%

Tulsa's economy has stayed strong through the recession. Home prices have continued to rise, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and unemployment is a low 6%.

No. 3: Baltimore-Towson, Md.

Wage Increase: 2.5%

Baltimore is increasingly an extension of the nation's capital. As lower-wage industries are replaced by relatively high-wage government-supported jobs, average wages increase.

No. 4: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.

Wage Increase: 2.3%

Unemployment in Cape Coral, a major housing-bubble city, is a painful 11.9%. But average wages are jumping. It's likely a sign that low-wage jobs created by the housing boom are being lost much more quickly than high-wage jobs. That pushes average wages higher, but it's not a positive sign for the economy.

No. 5: Tucson, Ariz.

Wage Increase: 2.2%

Tucson has managed to keep unemployment at 6.5%, two percentage points below the national average. A relatively tight job market means wages can still rise.

Brand name companies go bankrupt

Brand name companies go bankrupt
As consumers cut back, businesses are scrambling. 14 brands you know -- from an NHL hockey team to Obama's suit maker -- that are hitting the skids.

The Washington-based clothing retailer, which is known for its mom jeans and rugged outdoor gear, is one step nearer to exiting bankruptcy. On July 17, the company selected Golden Gate Capital's all-cash offer $286 million, which it will be present in bankruptcy court for approval on July 22.

This is the company's second spin through the courts. Its previous owner, Speigel Catalog, which bought the company in 1988, had filed for Chapter 11 in 2003. When Spiegel emerged in 2005, Eddie Bauer was spun off and became a stand-alone company for the first time since it was first acquired, by General Mills, in 1971.

"Unfortunately, a crushing debt burden left from the Spiegel bankruptcy combined with the severe, prolonged recession have left us with no choice but to look for ways to restructure the company's balance sheet," said President and CEO Neil Fiske in a statement.

When Eddie Bauer filed for bankruptcy, it claimed between $100 million and $500 million in assets, but just as much in liabilities.

According to a statement from Eddie Bauer, the Golden Gate offer would keep "the substantial majority" of Eddie Bauer's stores and employees on deck. Gift cards will be honored.

Brand Name Companies Go Bankrupt

Maybe this is the comeuppance for planting a hockey team in the desert. In May, the Phoenix Coyotes filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection with up to $500 million in debts and less than $100 million in assets.

After that, a hockey-worthy fight broke out between the two potential new owners: Jim Balsillie, co-CEO of BlackBerry-maker Research in Motion, and Jerry Reinsdorf, owner of the Chicago White Sox and Chicago Bulls. While Reinsdorf said he would keep the club in its adopted home, Balsillie wanted to move it back to Canada. (The Coyotes started as the Winnipeg Jets before moving to Glendale, Ariz., a suburb of Phoenix, in 1996.)

In mid-June, however, the bankruptcy judge ruled against Balsillie's $213 million bid and said the team would be auctioned off in August to anyone willing to keep the club in Arizona. But the bickering between the two sides continues.

Whoever wins, they're scoring a team that averaged fewer than 11,000 fans at each game during the 2008-2009 seasons. That left the stadium almost half empty at home games.

The president's suit maker needs a bailout

Not even having ultra-dapper President Obama as a customer could help Hartmarx. The Chicago-based clothing maker declared bankruptcy in January, just after the president wore its suits for his inauguration and election night attire.

The company listed between $100 million and $500 million in assets and liabilities, and noted in its filing a "substantial decline in discretionary apparel purchases by consumers and by the company's retail customers."

Established in 1872, Hartmarx makes business, casual and golf clothes for its own brands -- including Hart Schaffner Marx, Palm Beach and Racquet Club -- and has exclusive rights to market under other luxury brands -- including Tommy Hilfiger, Burberry men's tailored clothing, Ted Baker, Pierre Cardin and Perry Ellis.

Currently, the brands look to survive under the guidance of British equity firm Emerisque, which bid $128.4 million for Hartmarx.

Six Flags waves the white flag

sixflags1.gif The economy has been quite the thrill ride for Six Flags. The New York City-based amusement-park operator went belly-up in June, unable to spin off $2.4 billion in debt -- even on the Tilt-A-Whirl.

But never fear: The chain's 20 parks, which stretch from Montreal to Mexico City, will remain open. The Chapter 11 filing is "strictly a financial restructuring" of the company's debt, said President and CEO Mark Shapiro in a statement.

The parks attracted 25 million visitors in 2008, and the company made $275 million. "Six Flags has been a favorite family destination for almost a half century. Our financial reorganization will best position our parks to entertain millions of guests for another 50 years," Shapiro added.

Fancy soap-maker can't hold water

When you're afraid you might lose your job, triple-milled soap, $18 body lotion and aromatherapy spa treatments tend to become less of a priority. The domestic portion of Crabtree & Evelyn filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in July with between $10 million and $50 million in assets -- and just as much in debts.

The Woodstock, Conn., company was founded in 1973 and built its brand on natural products that feature herbs, fruits and fresh flowers. But as consumers watched Wall Street spiral lower, they reigned in spending on consumer luxuries. Crabtree & Evelyn's 126 stores, mostly sprinkled in malls throughout the country, have seen a sharp sales pullback.

The real-estate portfolio of the company will go under the microscope as part of its bankruptcy filing, but for now, the stores remain open. Crabtree & Evelyn also operates a Web site, which is unaffected by the filing, and distributes products to thousands of wholesalers.

Crabtree & Evelyn is owned by Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad, a Malaysian company that is publicly traded there and invests in a grab-bag of industries, including manufacturing, real estate and retail.

Filene's Basement dresses down

filenes1.gif This bargain basement may have passed on a few too many deals to its customers. Filene's Basement filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in May with assets of up to $100 million and liabilities of as much as five times that amount.

The company said the credit crunch coupled with consumers pulling back made its debt burden unmanageable.

Fellow discount retailer Syms agreed to pay $65 million for the company, which was actually founded in a Boston basement in 1909. Syms bought 23 of the retailer's 25 store leases as well as its inventory -- which includes everything from Seven jeans to Prada merchandise. The stores will continue to operate under the Filene's Basement name.

Extended Stay need a refresh

uring a recession, travelers seem to be more willing to bunk up with buddies to save a buck. The long-term hotel operator, Extended Stay, filed for Chapter 11 in June, buckling under a debt load totaling $7.6 billion at the end of 2008, according to court documents.

The hotel chain, meanwhile, showed assets of only $7.1 billion at the end of 2008 with sales of $1 billion for the year. And revenues tumbled further as the recession dug in deeper: The first five months of 2009 saw revenue per available room crater by 23.2% compared to the same period the year prior.

The hotel chain is popular among business travelers who have to work away from home for more than a night, offering apartment-like conditions with fully equipped kitchen, expanded work space, wireless Internet, onsite guest laundry facilities, and pet-friendly rooms.

During the bankruptcy process, the hotel chain -- which has more than 680 properties under a handful of regional names such as Extended Stay America, Homestead Studio Suites, Studio PLUS and Crossland -- will all remain open and in operation.

Eddie Bauer packs up - again

eddieb1.gif The Washington-based clothing retailer, which is known for its mom jeans and rugged outdoor gear, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in June.

This is the company's second spin through the courts. Its previous owner, Speigel Catalog, which bought the company in 1988, had filed for Chapter 11 in 2003. When Spiegel emerged in 2005, Eddie Bauer was spun off and became a stand-alone company for the first time since it was first acquired, by General Mills, in 1971.

"Unfortunately, a crushing debt burden left from the Spiegel bankruptcy combined with the severe, prolonged recession have left us with no choice but to look for ways to restructure the company's balance sheet," said President and CEO Neil Fiske in a statement.

When Eddie Bauer filed for bankruptcy, it claimed between $100 million and $500 million in assets, but just as much in liabilities. Eddie Bauer intends to sell the majority of its assets to CCMP Capital for $202 million, though bidding is still open.

CCMP has agreed to keep the majority of the company's 371 stores open, as well as its catalogue and Web site operations. Gift cards, however, will only be honored until Sept. 1 or the company sells its assets -- whichever comes first.

Fear and Loathing in the Labor Market

by Andrea Coombes

Desperation, and six other mistakes job-seekers should avoid

Economists call it the labor market, but for job hunters competing with almost 15 million unemployed workers, it probably feels more like a labor jungle.

And many economists expect the current 9.5% unemployment rate to get worse before it gets better, possibly topping 10% -- a situation not seen since the early 1980s, when for a 10-month period the jobless rate hovered between 10% and 10.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In times like these, bad news isn't hard to find. But jobs are -- and job seekers are all too aware of it. That alone can have negative ramifications, some experts say.

"Job hunters, because they are so fearful and full of anxiety, the way they are approaching job hunting is more off base than ever," said Andrea Kay, a career consultant and author of "Work's a Bitch and Then You Make It Work."

They're "not taking time to think about strategy," Kay said. "They're merely reacting."

Hide Your Desperation

When asked about the biggest mistakes job seekers are making, the three most-cited problems were "too desperate/willing to take anything," "poor interview preparation" and "weak resumes," according to a survey of 500 executive recruiters conducted for TheLadders.com, a career site for executives.

In this job market it's not surprising people are "willing to take anything." Still, career experts say it's important to spend time digging up information on jobs that are well suited to you, rather than applying to any open position.

"It's not about how many jobs you apply to; it's applying to the right one," said Alex Douzet, president and co-founder of TheLadders.com. "The skill and preparation is in narrowing down the right job for you."

The right strategy is not complicated, Kay said. "A good job hunter has two jobs: They should be discovering the problems that employers have for which they need help and then they should be presenting themselves as the solution."

Is the company struggling to stay in business? Developing a new product? "What are their issues that I as an IT person or a marketing person or a customer-service person can help them with?" Kay said.

Others agreed that in job hunting, strategy is all-important. "Even during good times, there are still people competing for virtually every job listing," said Richard Bolles, author of "The Job-Hunter's Survival Guide" and "What Color Is Parachute?"

"During hard times, you have to have better job-hunting skills to compete," he said.

Developing a strategy can help you focus your search and, ideally, help you overcome that sense of desperation. Also, consider these other mistakes to avoid when job-hunting:

1. Relying Solely on Ads and Online Job Sites

Jobs often are not advertised, and the only way to find them is by networking. "Many employers prefer not to advertise on the Internet. They prefer to fill vacancies in more personal ways. Job hunters who go on the Internet, typically only 10% or less" are successful, Bolles said.

That means finding and contacting companies that can use your skills, Kay said. "Find a live human being there that you can connect to so you're not just another resume coming in the door."

Contact that person via email or telephone, and say, for instance, "I understand you're in the process of rolling out a new product. I would like to talk to you about how I can support you in this," Kay said. Also send your resume and a letter "packed with reasons for them to want to talk to you."

At small to mid-size firms, try simply walking in the door, resume in hand -- but keep in mind that not all employers appreciate this.

"I'm a fan of physically going to the company," said Robert Hosking, executive director of OfficeTeam, a temporary staffing agency for administrative professionals and unit of Robert Half International.

"Get yourself looking professional. Walk into reception. 'I understand you posted an ad for this. I know it said to email the resume. I personally wanted to drop one off,'" Hosking said. "It shows tremendous initiative to be able to do that. It sets you apart from 90% of job seekers out there, and it gets your resume to the top of the pile in hardcopy."

Still, at a larger company, you'll likely need to find somebody to drop off your resume for you, Bolles said. In that case, your network, as well as online sites such as LinkedIn can be invaluable for making connections.

2. Don't Make Your Resume a List of Activities

Job seekers often think their resume is for listing "everything I've ever done in my life," TheLadders.com's Douzet said. "No, no, no. This is a marketing vehicle. This is your company brochure. It's your brand statement. It's got to tell your story."

Focus on detailing your achievements, not listing what you've done. Quantify your successes, whether in dollars or time saved for your previous company, or in customers retained, experts said.

Also, your resume should be tailored to fit the company's job description so it catches the eye of the person doing the initial resume sorting. Also, your resume's story should parallel what you say in the interview. "When I meet with you and I've read your story on paper," Douzet said, "there shouldn't be a disconnect."

More resume rules: Two pages maximum, and no colored paper or cute graphics, Hosking said. If you drop off your resume, use a slightly heavier paper so it stands out from the stack the company printed out from emails.

3. Don't Go to the Interview Unprepared

If the company recently made an acquisition or unveiled a new product, you need to know, and be able to speak intelligently about the company's needs and culture. "Companies loved to be loved, just as much as individuals," Bolles said.

Another way to prepare: Come up with two or three messages you want to get across to hiring managers. Again, tailor these to match the job description, Douzet said. Why? More than one person is going to have to approve hiring you.

"These people are going to get together later and discuss your candidacy," Douzet said. "They have to remember something about you and they have to convince each other that you are the right person to do the job."

If you've presented a coherent story about your achievements and how they fit the job's requirements, you're more likely to be considered as a contender.

4. Don't Confuse 'Networking' With Asking for Work

Networking is about developing relationships, Kay said. Contact people you know to ask for advice; don't ask for work. Tap their expertise about their industry and company, and what advice they have for you on the job hunt.

Also, don't ask chance acquaintances for a reference, but tap them for information on their firm's hiring process, its culture and even the name and number of the person doing the hiring.

Networking "is developing relationships that may not have an immediate payoff tomorrow but certainly in the long run are very helpful," said Judith Applebaum, director of career services at the University of Buffalo.

5. Don't Treat Support Staff Poorly

Sixty-one percent of executives said they considered their assistant's opinion important when evaluating job candidates, according to an OfficeTeam survey. "No matter how stressed you get, keep in mind that if you're not as nice to the front desk person as you could be, that information always gets back," Hosking said.

6. Failing to Tap Resources

Many college career offices offer their services to alumni of all ages, Applebaum said.

"At the University of Buffalo we provide individual assistance through career counseling, we have vacancy listings, resume databases that we offer to employers, job fairs [and] networking opportunities with employers and with alumni," she said.

Also, search for local nonprofit and for-profit career-counseling agencies, she said. Along with networking opportunities, support groups can help job seekers maintain a positive attitude.

Finally, while you're job-hunting, consider volunteering or taking a class at a local college. The experience will keep you connected and may lead to achievements that will serve you well on your resume.